Further Points On The Bond Bull-Bear Fight (Part 2 Of 3) – ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:TBT)

Background In Part 1 of this series, I laid out the backdrop for my continuous focus on interest rates as part of the key to investing. This has served me well in mostly achieving and sometimes exceeding my financial goals since my first stock trade in 1979, even during the 18 years (1982-2000) when it was all stocks, all the time for me, with little interest in bonds until the bubble years in the late ’90s. The main points in that article a “don’t fight the Fed” focus, noting also that the commercial banking system was functioning well, but combining the credit creation coming from banks with the negative credit creation stemming from the Fed’s reversal of QE had led to stagnation in “thin air” credit. This trend is bond-friendly. Since the Fed and broad credit creation have driven markets for years, I made that the focus of the article. One of the secondary points I made was that if we rather arbitrarily look at Treasury bond yields since the end of the Civil War era, say when Multpl.com begins its data presentation (around 1871), a “normal” bond yield has been 4%. From that perspective, the era of “low” Treasury… Read full this story

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