The risk of a recession is rising, and the main threat to the economy is the Trump administration’s ongoing trade war, according to a panel of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics released Monday. “The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to U.S. economic activity,” said NABE survey chairman Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist, Oxford Economics. A small majority of the Washington, D.C.-based association of business economists also expects that the Federal Reserve to remain on hold through 2019, with 40% of the group saying they expect at least one more rate cut this year. The results of the survey, conducted the week of Sept. 9-16, come as many analysts see warning signs in the latest U.S. economic indicators, including a plunge in manufacturing activity to more than a 10-year low in September and a sharp slowdown in services industry growth to levels last seen in 2016. Those reports last week heightened fears the economy may be flirting with a recession, sending stock prices sharply lower. Four out of five of the NABE economists surveyed said they think the economy is at risk of slowing further, up… Read full this story
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